When hurricanes strike, as they did twice last year, our wary eyes turn to storm surges and street flooding from torrential rains. Unlike our neighbors in parts of Volusia and Flagler counties, the Space Coast escaped major damage from hurricanes Nicole and Ian. But the storms were another wakeup call for Brevard beachside communities.
About four years ago, at the direction of regional planners and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, coastal municipalities undertook studies to examine the long-term consequences of storm flooding and sea level rise. Even the more optimistic projections are unsettling.
Many of us view sea level rise as a threat from the Atlantic Ocean, but in fact, flood maps and experts agree it is the related rising waters in the Banana River and Indian River Lagoon that pose the most threat.
By the year 2100 large back-island areas along the Space Coast are projected to be permanently flooded and uninhabitable. Most of us alive today won’t be around for that, but children and grandchildren will have to face the insidious affects of the climate change reality.
Flood projections on the Space Coast come from the Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The two forecasts vary significantly. The Corp estimates sea level rise at 5.15 feet by 2100. NOAA projects it at 8.48 feet. The difference is plainly evident when you look at flood projections on street maps in communities like Cape Canaveral and Indialantic. Many back-island neighborhoods will be permanently lost to the rising waters of the Banana River and Indian River Lagoon. And you don’t have to wait for 2100 for that to happen. According to flood maps, some areas will be impacted as soon as 2050. Some flood even today during heavy rain.
Along the ocean front dunes will continue to provide some protection from rising seas, except from major hurricane storm surges. Keep in mind, both Ian and Nicole were only Category 1 hurricanes, and yet caused significant dune destruction. The effects of a major storm would be more consequential.
Dr. Randall Parkinson of Melbourne, a coastal geologist, does studies for coastal communities that project sea level rise. “It’s not a question of if we get hit by a major storm, it’s when.”
Brevard County participated in a planning survey in 2018-2019 that measured flooding impact of storms and sea level rise. Brenda Defore-Suprenant of the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council directed the study for beachside communities. “The study was to measure the ability and capacity for communities to bounce forward” after storm events. She said the study identified “action items” for communities to take.
The city of Cape Canaveral, for example, has developed eight action plans, all designed to mitigate flooding and impacts of sea level rise. The plans contain many “green” measures to combat climate change on a local level.
These measures include planning for low-impact development, curbing the types of growth in flood-prone areas, mangrove planting along the Banana River, improving stormwater runoff systems, and even encouraging residents to use rain barrels to reduce runoff.
Zachary Eichholz, the city’s Sustainability Manager, says such steps obviously won’t impact global climate issues, but hopefully “will buy ourselves decades of time.”
Cape Canaveral resident Christie Davis says there is regular flooding in her back-island neighborhood. She rode out Hurricane Ian in her condo, but called it “one of the scariest things I have ever witnessed”. They evacuated to Orlando ahead of Hurricane Nicole. She called the stormwater drainage system “antiquated”. Eichholz said improvements are underway, and last year’s storms “galvanized those efforts.”
At Satellite Beach there was significant beach erosion from Hurricane Nicole. Many beach crossovers and stairways were destroyed but no major structural damage. Dr. Parkinson and his team did a study for the city back in 2011. Because land use and zoning changes take years to implement because of a complex legal tangle of state and local regulations, he says it’s only now that many of his recommendations are being implemented.
Parkinson’s work shows what he calls “a tipping point”, by the year 2050, a point when beachside communities like Satellite Beach face irreparable effects of climate change.
The Parkinson study projects sea level rise at Satellite Beach of 2.5-feet by 2050, and 5 feet by 2100, at which point he estimates as much as 20% of back island land may be submerged.
The community of Indialantic escaped structural damage in Ian and Nicole, but acknowledges neighborhoods along the Indian River Lagoon face long-term flooding dangers. According to Town Manager Mike Casey, “Indialantic knows the lowest area along the lagoon is the area of Miami Ave. and South Riverside as it is the lowest area within the incorporated area as seen by the flood map. The town is in the process of updating our stormwater system and creating new detention areas to help with flooding issues.”
The town of Melbourne Beach didn’t have any flooding during the hurricanes. Vice Mayor Joyce Barton says there was dune erosion, but the town regularly plants sea oats and sea grapes in the dunes to minimize erosion during storms. “We take care of our dunes, they protect us,” Barton said. The town is installing what Barton called “ribbon curbing” on some city streets that promote runoff, and don’t block water drainage like typical raised curbs do.
Major beach erosion occurred at Canaveral National Seashore. “Much of the road is covered in sand, and some dunes are now on the west side of the road at Playalinda,” according to park spokesperson Laura Henning. The seashore was closed for several months after Hurricane Nicole, and limited access to some Playalinda parking lots only started in January.
The Park Service generally has a policy of letting nature take its course. Henning says 10-12 miles of dunes were lost. “If they were meant to move, they’re going to move.” She says park management is just in the beginning stages of their planning for the future use of the seashore.
Brevard County parks along the south beaches were heavily eroded by the hurricanes. All were closed for several months. Some are still closed as the county brings in truck loads of sand to rebuild the dunes. Before heading to a south Brevard beach park it is best to check with the county Parks Department, 321-633-2046, to see what beaches are open.
The Kennedy Space Center has long recognized the importance of its dunes in preventing flooding during hurricanes. “Our shoreline fared quite well…we did not have any dune breaches in either storm” in 2022, according to Donald Dankert, KSC’s shoreline manager, in charge of environmental planning. Dankert says the Space Center’s dunes suffered some erosion, but the practice of seeding the dunes with native coastal plants did their job. “Our base standing is for 2080. Until then we don’t see any direct or major threat” to the Space Center, from sea level rise.
Beachside Brevard continues to grow, and more people are moving into areas that face an inevitable threat from sea level rise, especially back island neighborhoods that front on the Banana River and Indian River Lagoon. Professor Parkinson projects that at some point insurance companies and mortgage lenders may impose restrictions on development in those areas.
So what can be done? Zach Eichholz, of Cape Canaveral, acknowledges that if NOAA’s 8-foot sea level rise projection is accurate it would submerge large areas of the city, but he’s optimistic about solutions for the future. “Humans are a very stubborn bunch.”
Even Dr. Parkinson believes there is hope. “In my 20-plus years of experience, in the early years it didn’t seem that anybody was listening, but the last 3 to 5 years are encouraging.”